Thursday, May 26, 2022

Rajat Sharma Blog: Third wave of Covid pandemic while will it peak and go? , When will the third wave of Corona be at its peak, when will it be farewell?

Image Source : India TV
India TV Chairman and Editor-in-Chief Rajat Sharma.

The number of new cases of Kovid in India is increasing rapidly every day. In such a situation, all eyes are fixed on when the third wave of corona in the country will reach its peak. The question is also arising that when will the pace of increase of new cases of Kovid slow down and normalcy will be restored. In our prime time show ‘Aaj Ki Baat’ on Monday night, we spoke to several top experts about the current wave of the pandemic. These are the people whose assessments proved correct about the second wave that struck in April-May last year.

Experts believe that the current wave will end by the second week of March this year. It is being told that after March 10, the situation can become normal. After analyzing the trends and data so far, experts have told many such things about the crisis of Corona which gives relief. Like experts believe that in Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata, which are currently the epicenter of the epidemic, normalcy will return soon. It is expected that by the end of this month the situation in these cities will return to normal. But that doesn’t mean we can be restless. Keep in mind that the situation will take time to recover and the danger is big at the moment. Experts also say that the peak of the third wave of corona has not yet come in these three cities, that is, the cases will increase even more rapidly.

These questions are also arising in the minds of the people that in the states where elections are to be held in February and March, will the corona spread there during election campaigning, voting and counting. Experts say that the cases of corona in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Punjab will start decreasing by the end of January.

First of all, you should know that if someone comes in contact with a person infected with the Omicron variant, then it takes hardly 6 seconds to get infected. Due to the Omicron variant, this virus is spreading very fast. It spreads 6 times faster than the previous Delta variant. The good news is that the new variant is less lethal than the Delta. On Monday, more than 1.80 lakh new cases were reported across India during the last 24 hours. In the last one week, corona cases increased from 1.3 lakh to 7.8 lakh, while during the second wave, it took 5 weeks for corona cases to increase from 1.3 lakh to 7.8 lakh cases.

The speed of Omicron is so fast that now the positivity rate across the country has exceeded 13%. In big cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Bangalore, the positivity rate is more than 25%. It is only a matter of relief that this time the hospitalization rate and death rate are much lower than the second wave.

Experts claim that the faster the Omicron variant is growing, the faster it will reduce and end. Professor Manindra Agarwal of IIT Kanpur, who studied the pattern of the epidemic, has said that the peak of the third wave of corona in the country is not far away. They believe that by the end of January or the first week of February, the third wave of corona in India will be at its peak. At that time, 4 to 8 lakh new cases of corona will come in a day. Since the number of cases will increase rapidly, there may be a need for 1.5 lakh beds in the hospitals of the country at that time.

23,751 new cases of corona virus infection were reported in Delhi on Saturday. Due to less testing during the last 24 hours, 19,166 cases were registered on Sunday, but the positivity rate was 25 percent. 13,648 new cases were reported in Mumbai, 9,221 in Bengaluru and 5,556 in Kolkata.

According to the model of the professor of IIT Kanpur, this situation will not last long. The peak of the third wave can come in Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata by January 15. By January 15, up to 40-50,000 new cases can come in Delhi daily. After reaching the peak in Mumbai, 35-40,000 cases can come daily.

The most worrying thing is that doctors, health workers and policemen are getting infected on a large scale in all these cities. In Delhi alone, the report of about one thousand policemen has come positive. During the peak of the third wave of corona in Delhi and Mumbai, 13-15,000 beds may be needed in hospitals for the treatment of patients.

Although night curfew and weekend curfew are being strictly enforced in Delhi, markets and shopping centers are still crowded and many people are roaming without masks. The Omicron variant spreads rapidly, but is less lethal. In most cases, infected individuals do not show any symptoms, and that is the problem.

The infected person does not know that he is positive and should go into home isolation. Those who are symptomatic cases, that is, those who have symptoms like fever, body ache, upset stomach, sore throat or cough and cold, most of those patients get cured without any medicine in 3 days at home. Only in cases where people are suffering from diseases related to diabetes, heart, lung and kidney apart from corona, an infected patient may need to be hospitalised, as the virus spreads to different parts of the body.

Delhi currently has 60,733 active cases and the government has arranged for 14,222 beds in hospitals. So far, only 1,999 patients have been admitted to the hospital, out of which 443 patients are in ICU. Only 503 patients have required oxygen support. About 88 percent of Delhi’s hospitals are lying vacant at this time. 34,960 beds have been kept ready in hospitals in Mumbai, out of which 7,432 beds are in patients. Patients are admitted in 30 percent of the beds in the ICU. Compared to the second wave, there is no beating for medicines, oxygen and hospital beds. Markets in Mumbai are still crowded and many people are refraining from wearing masks.

In the show ‘Aaj Ki Baat’ we showed how DK Shivakumar, a senior Congress leader in Karnataka, who went on a padyatra without a mask, misbehaved with a doctor. That doctor had gone to him for random sampling. During a Congress padyatra, former CM Siddaramaiah was found positive and had to go for home isolation. Karnataka Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai expressed concern over Congress leaders flouting COVID guidelines during the padyatra. Later Bommai himself was also found to be Kovid positive and had to go into home isolation.

Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, BJP President JP Nadda, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Minister of State for Defense Ajay Bhatt have also been found infected with the virus. It is true that the Omicron variant is less dangerous, it is also true that fewer people have to go to the hospital than this, but this does not mean that there should be negligence or corona should be taken lightly. (Rajat Sharma)

Watch: Full Episode of ‘Aaj Ki Baat With Rajat Sharma’ on January 10, 2022


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